So the 15 eco-town bidders have to bet on making the final 10. Victory will mean a glorious profit; defeat a bitter, bitter loss. Emily Wright looks at what will separate winners and losers

The 15 shortlisted locations for the UK鈥檚 eco-towns were announced by the communities department last week, but the winning bidders will have had just enough time to grab a mouthful of champagne before they have to turn their attention to securing a place in the 10 that will be built. This is where the real work starts 鈥 and it will not be cheap.

The exact cost will depend on how much work each has to do to meet the government鈥檚 targets 鈥 and some have a lot more than others. However, the average bid cost will be about 拢500,000, according to Jeremy Edge, head of planning at Knight Frank. This will pay for all the lawyers, architects and QSs whose advice will be sought, as well as engineering issues such as improving transport links and achieving sustainability target. Then there is the social dimension: how many jobs will the development create? And what are the plans for dealing with protesters? All that work will have to be done by 30 June.

Then, on top of that, there are the costs of applying for planning permission at the end of this year. It is likely that only the 10 that make the cut will do this, but the average cost for each is expected to hit 拢1m, bringing the total cost to a hefty 拢1.5m.

Why so expensive?

The communities department鈥檚 eco-towns consultation paper, published last Thursday, set out a list of the challenges and constraints that the bidders face. They fall into four categories: environment, transport, employment, and conservation and historic constraints. These could be anything from upgrading public transport to creating jobs.

Gareth Capner, a former planning consultant for Barton Wilmore, which is working on four of the shortlisted bids, says: 鈥淭he next stage will be very expensive because bidders must go back and refine their proposals by consulting with stakeholder groups and local residents to get them on side.

鈥淭hen they鈥檙e going to have to either meet, or show they鈥檙e on track to meet, the recommendations and targets laid out by the government. There will need to be lots of research, lots of discussion and it will take lots of man hours 鈥 all of which will add up to many thousands of pounds.鈥

He adds that immediate investment is imperative: 鈥淚t鈥檚 the only way. Bidders will have to address all the issues raised. There is a 66% chance of getting into the final 10, and given the returns that will follow from being identified as an eco-town I鈥檇 be very surprised if people don鈥檛 put their best foot forward over this consultation period.鈥

But a good bet is still a gamble. One of the groups bidding to build an eco-town with 5,000 houses has estimated that its site will deliver a profit of 拢150m. Another shortlisted bidder, who wished to remain anonymous, says: 鈥淚f we are successful the payout will be huge. We鈥檒l be very wealthy indeed. The goal is to make a profit out of a huge development. That鈥檚 what we鈥檙e all here for.鈥

And a communities department spokesperson adds: 鈥淓ach of those in the running knows they are at risk. Some of them will not reap the benefits. But for those that do it鈥檚 a big profit, and for most of them it鈥檚 worth it.鈥

If we are successful the payout will be huge. We鈥檒l be very wealthy indeed. The goal is to make a profit out of a huge development.

Eco-town bidder

At least one bidder has protected itself against the worst-case scenario. This group, which also wished to remain unnamed, has paid a consultancy firm 拢500,000 to carry out all the research and honing of the bid. The catch is that the consultant only gets paid if its bid makes the top 10. 鈥淭he cash is a real incentive for it. But we pay nothing if we don鈥檛 end up one of the final choices despite the work that has gone into it by the consultancy and that鈥檚 an even bigger incentive. We鈥檙e pretty confident we鈥檒l make it through.鈥

Whether or not they are working on a no-win, no-fee basis, each of those still in the running knows they are in for a hard slog in the months ahead. David Gosling is development planner for Banks Developments, which is involved in the proposal for Rushcliffe, Nottinghamshire. He says: 鈥淭he cost of the initial bid was not that much but now, over the next six months, it will be a different story. We鈥檙e looking at hundreds of thousands and a huge amount of work. But it鈥檚 either that or lose the chance for a place on the list of 10. It鈥檚 a calculated risk.鈥

Bidders must also take on board warnings from industry bodies. The Royal Town Planning Institute has warned that the towns will need to be properly linked to others to avoid creating 鈥渟oulless Stepford Wives suburbia鈥, and Robert Napier, the chairman of English Partnerships, says there needs to be a focus on how these towns are to be delivered. 鈥淚dentifying 15 potential sites is no more than the beginning. Selection of the final sites must be based on the practicalities of delivery, rigorous excellence in design and planning and must involve local communities at every stage,鈥 he says.

Winning over the people

And it is this consultation with the locals that is one of the key areas to focus on now. For one thing, the quality of consultation will be a criterion in choosing the winning bid. And once the bid is won, local support will be crucial in the ideological struggle that is certain to arise during and after the planning process.

Even so, some opposition to some schemes is inevitable, and most developers have had to come up with contingency plans to deal with protesters. The cost of this remains unclear. But it will certainly eat into budgets as meetings, focus groups and consultations with community groups will need to be set up.

Gosling says it will be a large part of Banks Developments鈥 push towards a place in the final 10: 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to have lots of meetings to set up with the Highways Agency, the Environment Agency and local communities; we need to get out and talk to people who might oppose an eco-town in the area. We鈥檙e aware it will be an expensive process. But it鈥檚 a necessary one.鈥

Necessary indeed 鈥 the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) is just one of many groups concerned by the eco-towns and hopes to sway the government鈥檚 decision when it comes to the final 10. Fiona Howie, CPRE鈥檚 senior regional policy director, says: 鈥淲e plan to be as involved as possible and influence decisions as much as we can. We believe that some sites are more suited to this sort of development than others and we hope our views will be taken into consideration during this consultation period.鈥

Lobby groups and (ironically) environmental protesters could also have a part to play in the construction process after the winning bidders are chosen. 鈥淥ur regional branches do have plans for protest,鈥 says Howie. 鈥淪ome are already involved on sites like Weston Otmoor, Pennbury and Middle Quinton. But we expect there to be calls for more demonstrations on sites when the final 10 are announced and we will be involved.鈥

Yet another challenge for bidders in the fight to secure a winning eco-town location. And if they don鈥檛 make it, it鈥檚 going to be an expensive one to lose.