黑洞社区

Over the last few months, the Brexit referendum and its consequences have hogged the headlines here in the UK 鈥� but another vote looks set to dominate the airwaves this autumn.

In just over a month鈥檚 time, if the tightening of recent polls continues, the world鈥檚 only remaining superpower could be in the hands of one Donald John Trump, a man with no track record of elected office and, judging by his Twitter account, a very thin skin. To say that opinion is divided over the Republican Party鈥檚 candidate for the US presidential election is a gross understatement. Much of the American voting public adore him. Woolly liberals can鈥檛 stand him. But perhaps most significantly, the US business establishment doesn鈥檛 seem at all keen, either.

鈥淭he American business community feel the same about Trump as the British business community felt about Brexit. Nobody in senior business circles wants Trump, even though they are natural Republicans,鈥� says Ann Bentley, global chairman of Rider Levett Bucknall.

But as she observes, ruefully recalling the outcome of the EU referendum, 鈥渏ust because the business community thinks something is insane doesn鈥檛 mean it鈥檚 not going to happen鈥�.

Fame and fortune

Of course, Trump鈥檚 fame and fortune are rooted in the business world. The colourful billionaire comes from a real estate background in New York, where he worked for his father鈥檚 company, specialising in residential projects. He soon took over the company, renamed it the Trump Organization and expanded into high end hotels and casinos. The 70-year-old now has an estimated fortune of $4.5bn, according to the Forbes 400 rich list, and his building projects are on a grand scale, including the $290m Trump World Tower in Manhattan (see ).

Back in 2008, when Trump was just a tycoon and not a presidential hopeful, about his plans to expand in Britain. At the time he was full of praise for the construction industry over here and indicated that he wanted to work with UK firms, saying:

鈥淚, for one, like working with UK firms and architects鈥� (read more quotes from our Trump interview below). Cut to 2016, and UK firms with interests in the US may not just be contemplating doing business with Trump on construction projects, they are facing the prospect of being indirectly affected by him and a drastically changed political climate if he wins the 8 November vote.

So just how exposed are UK firms to any global economic consequences of a Trump presidency? And for those companies and individuals that do operate in the States, should they be worried that his protectionist stance could mean tighter entry requirements to the US market?

Exposure

Unlike in the 1980s 鈥� when, to paraphrase the iconic advert for the Hanson conglomerate, a lot of firms from over here were doing rather well over there 鈥� the UK construction sector鈥檚 exposure to the US market is limited these days. Out of the major listed contractors, according to Tony Williams of consultancy 黑洞社区 Value, only Balfour Beatty retains a significant exposure to the US market, while no UK housebuilders operate across the Atlantic following Taylor Wimpey鈥檚 late noughties withdrawal.

Just because the business community thinks something is insane, doesn鈥檛 mean it鈥檚 not going to happen

Ann Bentley, Rider Levett Bucknall

Accessing the US job market is hard for overseas professionals, says Bentley: 鈥淭here are already quite significant trade barriers with the US. They protect their markets far more than we do: it鈥檚 very difficult for us to transfer staff to the States.鈥�

But a few significant names do remain. 鈥淚n terms of boots on the ground, a handful of building product companies and white collar consultants have reasonably big offices in the US and continue to do well,鈥� says Williams. Consultants with a presence in the US include Gleeds, WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff and Atkins, while other big names in the UK such as Aecom and Halcrow are US-owned.

And the US remains an important market for high-profile architecture practices such as Foster + Partners, which is at this moment finishing off tech firm Apple鈥檚 headquarters in California.

Free movement

Will Waller, market intelligence lead at Arcadis, says: 鈥淕iven America鈥檚 significance to the UK as a trading partner and investor, UK construction will hope that any potential for protectionism or isolationism will be limited.鈥�

Ben Derbyshire, president-elect at the RIBA and managing partner at architecture practice HTA, agrees, saying that it is in nobody鈥檚 interest for the next US president to clamp down on freedom of movement for professionals working in the built environment.

He says: 鈥淲hat we need is the equivalent in the built environment professionals of the kind of passporting that enables freedom of movement in the financial services.鈥�

Urbanisation, Derbyshire elaborates, throws up challenges that are best tackled by pooling expertise from across disciplines and geographies. 鈥淵ou need the very best talent available: an isolationist approach is not what we want,鈥� he says.

Maintaining healthy trading links is vital too.  While Far Eastern investment in UK property may have made headlines in recent years, the US remains by far the biggest foreign investor, accounting for 27% of all inward investment last year, according to UK government figures.

But probably the main issue for the industry is the impact that the US election will have on the broader business climate.

Waller says: 鈥淲hoever is the next president of the United States, UK construction will hope that they bring stability and positive growth to the world鈥檚 economy; which will inevitably have a positive impact on the UK鈥檚 domestic economic performance and construction demand. Jack Pringle, principal at architect Perkins+Will, agrees. 鈥淭he world economy largely still hinges off a strong and open US economy. I hope that the next president whoever she or he may be will deliver this,鈥� he says.

Bentley also expresses concern about world stability 鈥� that a bellicose Trump, who has threatened to hit the jihadist group Islamic State hard, will increase the risk of conflict in the Middle East and beyond and hence increase instability, which will in turn dampen business confidence.

Grin and bear it

But of course here in the UK, it鈥檚 all out of our hands. Williams says that, if Trump does win November鈥檚 poll, the UK government must simply swallow its distaste for the Republican candidate 鈥� especially in a post-Brexit vote climate where transatlantic trade links will become even more important than they are now.

鈥淭he UK desperately needs the US. Both as a friend and an export market, it鈥檚 always been important but now that the UK is exiting the EU, it鈥檚 doubly important. They shouldn鈥檛 write it off because he might win. At the diplomatic level it鈥檚 enormously important for the UK to have a very strong economic relationship with the US.鈥�