黑洞社区

It was a wild and windy Wednesday in Leeds when the rumours began to spread among the UKREIIF conference delegates.  

At first, nobody was quite sure how seriously to take them. The housing minister himself, in a Q&A with a housing association boss, seemed as surprised as everyone else. 

鈥淚 have no idea where this came from,鈥� Lee Rowley said, laughing: 鈥淚t鈥檚 not what I am planning for and, if it does happen, I鈥檒l be out leafleting in the rain in the constituency later.鈥� 

Across the afternoon鈥檚 panel sessions, many attendees appeared to be paying as much attention to the updates from their Twitter feeds as to the panellists in front of them. Then, shortly after 5pm, it was confirmed: There will be a general election 鈥� and soon. 

Industry reacts to shock news of July election

On the ground in Leeds, there seemed to be agreement that the election cannot come soon enough.  

Speaking outside an Opportunity London reception in the city centre on Wednesday night, Andy Cleevely, a partner at Ridge & Partners, said: 鈥淚t kind of feels as though the market has been a little bit tentative, waiting for this to happen and to get some sort of definition around it. So I think it鈥檚 a positive thing.鈥�  

He said he expected the formation of a new government to see an upturn in the market. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a boom time at the moment and I think that鈥檚 partly because there is a lot of uncertainty in the market. I think the interest rates and inflation have had an impact on that. And so I think we need a bit of certainty.鈥� 

Will Poole, a partner at architectural practice Howells, echoed the statement. 鈥淚t seems to have been well received as good news that there鈥檚 going to be some clear outcome sooner rather than later,鈥� he said, adding that there had been 鈥渁 stasis鈥� for the past years as overlapping constraints on building costs had made the market stagnate.

 I think you鈥檇 have to be in quite an isolated mindset to feel that [the election] is a balanced fight

Will Poole, partner, Howells

鈥淯ltimately, it鈥檚 stability that will underpin confidence in the market and investment in the UK, and will also help the flow of new homes being built.鈥�  

Poole added that the election news had given UKREIIF attendees 鈥渁 shot in the arm and it seems to have created a bit of a buzz鈥�.

Asked if there was more warmth in the built environment towards Labour than the Conservatives, he said: 鈥淚 think you鈥檇 have to be in quite an isolated mindset to feel that it is a balanced fight. I think that鈥檚 a question that probably answers itself.鈥� 

Of the issues that are set to dominate the election campaign, one architect to whom 黑洞社区 spoke that evening made it clear which would be the most salient within the built environment: 鈥淗ousing, housing, housing.鈥� 

Tory minister defends record and urges industry to temper expectations

On the Conservative side, the contrast was stark. Rowley鈥檚 Q&A with Fiona Fletcher-Smith, boss of L&Q, seemed largely to be an exercise in managing expectations within the sector. 

Asked how the department could help address the interruption in housing supply while the sector waited for the spending review, Rowley said it was 鈥渓ooking more broadly with colleagues and Treasury about what may be possible鈥�. But he warned leaders not to expect too much at the end of a spending review period.   

鈥淚 hope you鈥檒l appreciate that there is always a natural cycle towards the end of the spending review where there is this absolute eagerness to get clarity, but we have to allow that process to go through,鈥� he said.  

 My big ask for any new government is to give us certainty on rent

Fiona Fletcher-Smith, chief executive, L&Q

鈥淎s much as I want to give you clarity about what鈥檚 coming in terms of affordable housing and all the other things that may or may not be available, so do my colleagues in health, so do my colleagues in education, so do my colleagues in welfare, so do my colleagues in pensions.鈥�  

While Rowley鈥檚 slightly gloomy outlook might not go down well on the campaign trail, it does illustrate some of the harsh realities that Labour could face if the party finds itself in power after July. 

Is stability the new sexy?

There was a sense across the conference that what many people want is boring, predictable, stability 鈥� and many will now be hoping for a general election result that delivers this. 

Stephanie Hyde, JLL鈥檚 chief executive of markets advisory for the UK and EMEA, said on the first day: 鈥淚 was talking to someone yesterday who said stability is the new sexy. I wouldn鈥檛 quite use those words, but I get what they mean.  

鈥淚t is important that we have that clarity for business to know about investment. When capital was cheap, it was hard enough, but with interest rates the way they are that is increasingly important.鈥� 

Hyde also acknowledged that there was important work that would need to be done by the next government: 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just planning [鈥�] but its energy and grid capacity 鈥� there鈥檚 so many more conservations going on there 鈥� and even some of the basics like water.  

鈥淐ambridge, one of the key areas for investment in the UK now, has a lot of things held up because the Environment Agency is saying there is not enough water. There needs to be a really detailed infrastructure plan to get it right.鈥� 

With every general election, there is a perception that its results will mean great change. But whoever is elected in July will, in many governmental departments, be inheriting pieces of policy developed over long periods of time by the civil service, which the party in charge may be reluctant to change. 

We can鈥檛 carry on for the next 10 or 20 years with traditional construction as a service being the primary way in which we deliver projects [鈥�] because we are going to run out of people to do the onsite jobs

Fergus Harradence, deputy director for infrastructure, construction and rail at the Department for Business & Trade

There seems to be little expectation of change relating to the construction playbook, for instance. Speaking at a panel on this topic, Fergus Harradence, deputy director for infrastructure, construction and rail at the Department for Business & Trade, said: 鈥淚 think the principles will largely remain the same because I think everyone agrees with the principles.鈥� 

Change in these areas of important 鈥� but not particularly sexy 鈥� civil service policymaking tends to be incremental, and so it will be for the playbook, according to Harradence.  

鈥淭hose areas where the playbook is likely to change are going to be very focused on things like digitisation in industrialised construction methodologies,鈥� he said  

鈥淒emographic change within society as a whole 鈥� but particularly within the construction workforce 鈥� is going to require us to make greater use of industrialised construction methodologies. We can鈥檛 carry on for the next 10 or 20 years with traditional construction as a service being the primary way in which we deliver projects [鈥�] because we are going to run out of people to do the onsite jobs.鈥�