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There is an eerie calm about this year鈥檚 Top 200 Consultants tables. The number of chartered staff across the 200 firms surveyed is down - but only by 0.3% - while fee income grew - but only by 0.8%. The top 10 firms are the same 10 firms as last year, and in precisely the same order, as if nobody dare move. But there is enough evidence in the tables and the accompanying survey compiled by Hewes & Associates to suggest that this stillness is misleading - margins are tighter than ever and fee income is still more than 20% below its 2009 peak. Rather, it seems that we have reached the eye of the storm. And, as weather-watchers will know, that means it is about to hit again.

Best of British?

At first glance, the Top 200 ) could be seen as a fitting coda to a very patriotic British summer, with some of these shores鈥� most venerable institutions showing their almost regal durability through a time of national strife. Atkins, founded by Sir William Atkins in 1938, has seen off the American upstarts, Aecom, URS and Jacobs, to take its habitual place at the top of the charts, with 3,296 UK chartered staff. Norman Foster, the closest that British architecture comes to a divine monarch, has expanded to take over at the head of the architects鈥� table, with 318 loyal chartered subjects. And sprightly 101-year-old EC Harris has added 26 chartered staff to return to the top of the QSs. 鈥淚t鈥檚 been a satisfying year in a very tough market,鈥� says chief executive Philip Youell. 鈥淲e have grown in the Middle East and Asia, we have more US clients than ever 鈥� and we鈥檙e working on about 75% of the high-end residential developments in London.鈥�

On closer examination, however, these last vestiges of the golden summer dissolve into the gathering gloom. Foster鈥檚 success, for example, owes as much to perennial table-topper BDP鈥檚 annus horribilis as to its own performance: BDP鈥檚 turnover fell from 拢86m to 拢62m in 2011, leading to the announcement of widespread redundancies last October. It now has 260 chartered architects, some 100 fewer than in last year鈥檚 tables.
Youell, meanwhile, acknowledges that much of EC Harris鈥� US growth is 鈥渃are of our colleagues in Arcadis鈥�, having been bought by the Dutch consultant in November. It has therefore joined the growing list of UK consultants to be snapped up by international buyers in recent years, including Halcrow, Currie & Brown, Scott Wilson, WSP and Davis Langdon.

And even the mighty Atkins has had a less than glittering year: its UK fee income fell by 6% and it has 160 fewer UK chartered staff than in 2011 - the biggest fall in the top 10. The most dynamic performer was arguably sixth-placed Jacobs - the US engineer increasing its fee income by 90.6% from 拢320m to 拢610m.

The gathering storm

It is still just about possible to detect a spirit of optimism spreading down the tables. It is often a sign that development is picking up when architects begin to boost their ranks, and this year mid-sized design practices are among the fastest growers in terms of staff numbers, with KSS Design Group and David Morley Architects expanding by 46.2% and 28.9% respectively. Allford Hall Monaghan Morris, meanwhile, has joined the ranks of the big hitters, adding 41% more UK staff to leap from 16th to seventh in the architects鈥� table; this on the back of prestigious project wins such as the new Google headquarters in King鈥檚 Cross.

Gary Whittle, managing director of architect Broadway Malyan (whose fee income rose 18% last year), says that despite the impact of the continuing eurozone crisis and the current harsh trading environment, there are reasons for architects to be hopeful - even if some of these lie abroad. 鈥淲e see overseas investment into the prime luxury residential sector remaining buoyant, and the Treasury鈥檚 review of PFI is promising to release new funding
for public procurement,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e also believe that the National Planning Policy Framework promises to give the government鈥檚 pro-development bark its bite.鈥�

The last year has also seen a surprising number of rises in wages. In 2009, Hewes鈥� survey showed that 11% more firms had reduced pay than increased it; last year the pendulum swung to a balance of 36% raising it; and this year that rose to 47%. The proportion of firms expecting to raise wages again in the next six months is also marginally higher than last year, with a balance of 32% rather than 30%.

It would be wrong, however, to think that rising wages reflect a return to rude financial health. Indeed they are something of an anomaly when you consider that, over the past three years, fee income has fallen more steeply than staff numbers (while fees are 22% lower than the peak of the market in 2009, staff levels are down 19%). Neill Morrison, partner at Drivers Jonas Deloitte, says that sometimes employers have little choice but to raise pay. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think businesses can afford to cut any further - staff will walk out on them. What we鈥檝e seen in the last year or so is that there are some opportunities for talented staff, and people have to match that or lose their high-fliers. You have to pay talent.鈥�

The money, though, still has to come from somewhere, and fee income is proving stubbornly resistant to growth. The 鈥渘ew reality鈥�, according to Martin Hewes, director of Hewes & Associates, is that most firms are working more for the same or less fee income, positioning themselves for market share rather than profit. 鈥淲ith demand relatively weak, clients are demanding more and consultants are having to deliver,鈥� he says. Respondents to Hewes鈥� survey cited issues such as lengthening procurement and bidding processes, the public sector鈥檚 鈥渕ore for less鈥� mantra and mission creep in terms of project scope. This, in turn, leads to staff working longer hours, putting more pressure on businesses to raise wages and increase headcount.

Ultimately, the only release from this pressure can come from companies鈥� margins. Four years into the downturn, Hewes鈥� analysis shows that these are still getting tighter. In 2007, 5% of firms reported margins of 3% or below, but by 2011 this had risen to 15%, and it has increased slightly again this year, to 16%. Meanwhile, the number of firms reporting margins of 8% or above has fallen from 56% in 2007 to 42%. In other words, despite the outward calm, the consultancy sector is ill prepared for a sharp downturn.

And the really bad news 鈥�

Unfortunately, of course, that is precisely the situation in which the UK construction sector finds itself. The Construction Products Association鈥檚 forecasts for the next three years make uninviting reading, with output expected to fall 4.5% this year and 1.3% next, before returning to growth in 2014. Hewes鈥� predictions are even grimmer, suggesting falls of 7.8%, 4.3% and 0.9% over the next three years, which will leave output some 12.5% - or 拢13.5bn - below 2011 levels by the end of 2014.

Needless to say, such a multibillion-pound shortfall will have a drastic effect on the consultancy sector. 鈥淐onsultants will have to chip away at their cost base in an effort to protect margins,鈥� says Hewes. 鈥淔or some, this may not be sustainable while clients demand more for less - unless they cut costs and fees. For others, merging with another firm may prove the best way forward.鈥�

EC Harris鈥� Youell agrees that we haven鈥檛 seen the end of consolidation in the sector. 鈥淭he big are going to get bigger and broader in terms of their capabilities 鈥� If you鈥檙e a mid-sized firm it鈥檚 going to be difficult to compete.鈥�

And those that do get subsumed into a bigger operation may find that their new parents look for growth abroad rather than in the declining UK market. Davis Langdon is an interesting case in point here. In 2009, it was the second-ranked surveyor, with 743 chartered staff. After suffering job losses in 2010, it then became part of US giant Aecom, but it has continued to slip slowly down the QSs鈥� table, to sixth from last year鈥檚 fourth. In 2012, Aecom has 590 UK chartered surveyors - less than half the headcount at EC Harris.

But Bob Pell, chief executive of Aecom鈥檚 programme, cost and consultancy practice, points out that this fall masks expansion elsewhere: 鈥淲e continue to grow our teams in emerging markets such as CIS [the Commonwealth of Independent States], Russia and most recently in Asia, where we have recently announced our intention to merge with KPK, one of the leading cost consultancies in the region.鈥�

Meanwhile, while the larger beasts look to foreign fields, there may be opportunities for new and niche players to capitalise, thanks to their lower cost base. Morrison, whose Drivers Jonas Deloitte division was formed last year and has just 22 cost consultants, says: 鈥淔or the large consultancies, there鈥檚 nowhere they can hide, apart from abroad. But as a new business, it is easier for us to win work in a shrinking market and grow.鈥�

The aim for most, however, will yet again be survival rather than growth. It seems unlikely that the static nature of this year鈥檚 tables will be repeated in 2013. The winds are picking up.

TOP CONSULTANT SURVEY RESULTS compiled by Hewes & Associates

Do you plan to reduce, leave unchanged, or increase salaries over the next six months?

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Reduce	0	3	1	1	2
Leave unchanged	4	87	75	68	65
Increase	96	10	23	31	34

 

Have you move staff onto a shorter working week over the past year?

	2009	2010	2011	2012
Yes	13	12	6	3
No	87	88	94	97

 

On average, what are your margins?

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
<3%	5%	3%	7%	11%	15%	16%
4-6%	17%	18%	23%	27%	24%	24%
6-8%	22%	20%	18%	19%	18%	18%
>8%	56%	59%	52%	43%	43%	42%

 

On average, in which direction are your margins moving?

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Up	28%	40%	38%	43%	56%	31%	9%	16%	13%	18%
Level	57%	50%	54%	48%	40%	52%	34%	49%	50	51%
Down	15%	10%	8%	9%	4%	17%	57%	35%	37%	31%

 

What % of staff have you laid off over the past 12 months? (bands changed for 2012)

2009-2011	from 2012	2009	2010	2011	2012
0-25%	0-5%	84	97	100	87
25-50%	5-10%	7	1	0	8
50-100%	>10%	9	2	0	5

 

Are you planning to increase, leave unchanged or decrease staff levels over the next six months?

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Increase	70	24	38	48	53
Leave unchanged	18	66	52	44	45
Decrease	12	10	10	8	2

 

Have you reduced, left unchanged, or increased salaries over the past year?

	2009	2010	2011	2012
Increased	17	18	42	52
Left unchanged	55	59	52	43
Decreased	28	23	6	5

 

What are your expectations regarding trading conditions over the next 12 months?

	2009	2010	2011	2012
Worse	23	32	18	15
Stability	61	51	59	69
Improve	16	17	23	16

 

What % of fee income relates to overseas work?

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Of those with o/s income, the average was	14.5%	19.5%	20%	20%	22%

 

Are you planning to increase % of overseas fee income?

		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
All companies	Yes	63%	56%	57%	58%	57%
Those with existing o/s business	Yes	89%	82%	81%	80%	83%
Those with no existing o/s business	Yes	31%	25%	27%	35%	22%

 

What % of your fee income relates to public sector work?

	2009	2010	2011	2012
0-25%	32	32	37	43
25-50%	23	26	25	22
50-75%	31	26	27	25
75-100%	14	16	11	10

 

Are you planning on winning more infrastructure work?

	2010	2011	2012
Yes	51%	52%	53%
No	49%	48%	47%

 

To what extent are you concerned about public expenditure cuts?

	2010	2011	2012
Very concerned	30%	30%	22%
Concerned	61%	59%	75%
Not concerned	9%	11%	3%

 

Do you expect to take advantage of any increase in public outsourcing work?

	2010	2011	2012
Yes	60%	62%	62%
No	40%	38%	38%

 

Are you winning more refurbishment and/or retrofitting work?

	2011	2012
Yes	75%	73%
No	25%	27%

 

Do you expect mergers/takeovers to become more widespread?

	2010	2011	2012
Yes	87%	87%	80%
No	13%	13%	20

 

Full the interactive tables and raw data supplied by Hewes & Associates