The odds on Tube Lines snapping up Metronet鈥檚 maintenance contracts shortened dramatically this week after the government鈥檚 arbiter said the collapsed group was theoretically entitled to claim up to 拢1.1bn from London Underground.

This suggests that a private consortium could run the contracts efficiently. Transport for London had suggested that it would be better to take the contracts in-house.

Much now depends on a report compiled by investment bank

NM Rothschild, which is acting as Metronet鈥檚 administrator. This document, which is due to be published in the next few days, will place a cash value on the firm鈥檚 contracts. It is expected that the arbiter鈥檚 ruling will influence Rothschild鈥檚 document.

One City insider said: 鈥淭he government would like the contracts to go to Tube Lines to keep PPP on track, but Ken Livingstone would go berserk.鈥�

Another said: 鈥淭ube Lines is the only one in the frame. Following the arbiter鈥檚 report, Transport for London can鈥檛 just pick them up. Tube Lines has done a good job on its contracts and the arbiter has made it clear there鈥檚 value in the contracts if you鈥檙e efficient.鈥�

The government would like it to go to Tube Lines but Ken would go berserk

City source

Tube Lines, owned by Amey and US Bechtel, declined to be drawn on whether it would bid for the contracts, but a spokesperson said: 鈥淲e weren鈥檛 surprised by the outcome but we cannot make recommendations to shareholders until we get the administrator鈥檚 report.鈥�

Brian Sedar, who this week took over as director of projects at the organisation on secondment from Bechtel, would say only that he was determined that Tube Lines would complete its own work on time and to budget.

Chris Bolt, the arbiter, said Metronet could have claimed between 拢140m and 拢470m on its contract for the Bakerloo, Central and Victoria lines (BCV) and between 拢230m and 拢600m on its contract for the sub鈥搒urface lines.

These are Bolt鈥檚 estimates of how much Metronet鈥檚 original contract for the BCV and SSLs should have been increased by to cover work to be carried out from July 2007. Metronet claimed that the extra work amounted to 拢2bn.

Should the job go to Tube Lines? Email your views to building@cmpi.biz or follow the 鈥淲hat you think鈥� link on our website, www.building.co.uk