Each week 黑洞社区 will ask an expert to analyse the latest evidence of green shoots, and see if it stands up to scrutiny. This week we have Simon Rawlinson, partner in Davis Langdon, on housing
There has been a raft of positive indicators this week: rising house prices from Nationwide, Halifax and the government, increasing confidence in the CIPs index, and now the RICS data.
These are key indicators for construction, as private housing will be an important source of growth. The RICS data shows enquiries have continued to rise since the beginning of the year. Unsold homes, measured on a sales to stock ratio, are also falling, suggesting price rises ahead. On the downside, these rises seem to be underpinned by a limited number of homes being brought to market: down by 16% in the month. Even so, only six out of every 100 surveyors report rising prices. Could an increase in stock from new build snuff out the price recovery?
The plus is that upward trends are beginning, even if the results are shaky. Some markets such as London could be on the cusp of recovery, but it will be some time still before we see a return to a sensible level of workload.
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