黑洞社区

Economists have predicted that the drop in construction output next year could be half as severe as previously thought after the 拢3bn increase in capital spending announced by the government this week.

Analysis of Monday鈥檚 pre-Budget report by the Construction Products Association (CPA) shows that output will fall by only 2.4% 鈥� as long as the money is spent as the government intends. The CPA previously forecast a 4.6% fall.

The association is still predicting that output will drop 0.3% in 2010 and return to growth in 2011.

The revised spending programme will lead to accelerated spending for this tax year and next, followed by a sharp drop in 2010/11 (see graph). The rise is predominantly in the education sector, followed by social housing and transport (see pie chart, right). The Treasury expects that most of the money, about 拢2.6bn, will be spent in 2009/10. An extra 拢365m will be spent in the present financial year, and will have a marginal effect on construction.

Other measures include:

鈥� A 拢7bn package aimed at small businesses

鈥� A potential 拢100bn scheme to provide government guarantees for new mortgage lending

鈥� A temporary holiday on the empty property rates tax for properties worth less than 拢250,000. The British Property Federation has complained that the low threshold means the move will offer little relief

It鈥檚 not the money that鈥檚 important. It鈥檚 having the mechanisms that deliver projects.

Michael Ankers, CPA

鈥� On Monday VAT will be cut from 17.5% to 15% until the end of next year.

Some commentators complained that the fiscal stimulus was too weak, but Michael Ankers, the chief executive of the CPA, described 拢3bn as 鈥渞ealistic鈥�.

But he said the government had to improve its procurement performance if the policy were to succeed. Large-scale programmes such as the 拢45bn 黑洞社区 Schools for the Future have been subject to persistent delays.

He said: 鈥淚t鈥檚 not the money that鈥檚 important. It鈥檚 having the mechanisms that deliver projects. It鈥檚 about whether the government has the key to making these programmes work.鈥�

His concern was echoed by Stephen Ratcliffe, outgoing chief executive of the Construction Confederation. He said: 鈥淕overnment always struggles to procure construction within its prescribed timescales. Action needs to be taken to make the process more effective.鈥�

The 拢7bn package to ease the financial burden on small businesses was welcomed by industry figures. However, several said that the moves, which include a 拢1bn government credit line to struggling firms, and a package of tax relief, would not be enough to prevent widespread redundancies and collapses.

Richard Diment, director-general of the Federation of Master Builders, said: 鈥淎t a time when 41% of FMB members are expecting to make redundancies, the chancellor could have gone further to stop the introduction of further taxes on development.鈥�