黑洞社区

13.53

That鈥檚 it from me for the moment - time to analyse the statement鈥檚 documents and many announcements in more detail, and check whether there are any other surprises in store in the small print. Check the website and email alerts for all the news and reaction as it comes in.

13.52

Autumn Statement summary:

It was a pretty low key affair with none of the theatrics we鈥檝e come used to expect from former chancellor George Osborne. The principle headlines for the construction industry are:

• 拢23bn National Productivity Investment Fund (NPIF), which will fund housing, R&D and economic infrastructure
• A commitment to raise the amount invested annually in economic infrastructure to up to 1.2% of GDP, from 0.8% today
• 拢1.4bn for an affordable housing programme, and 拢2.7bn for infrastructure to support housebuilding schemes - all part of the NPIF
• 拢1.3bn for roads and 拢450m for rail projects to improve capacity, again part of NPIF
• Extension of UK Guarantees scheme until 2026

13.34

To the govt the JAMS [just about managing people] are just an electoral demographic - to us they are our friends and neighbours

13.32

鈥淭he long term economic plan has failed.鈥� McDonnell said he had expected a reset in policy today - but hasn鈥檛 had it. 鈥淭his is a new conservative leadership with no answers to the challenges facing our country following Brexit鈥�. 鈥淭he chancellor must insits on full tariff-free access to the single market鈥� - McDonnell urge Hammond to stand up to the prime minister and Brexit fanatics in the government 鈥淚f he does so he will have our support鈥�

13.31

McDonnell says the statement 鈥減laces on record the abject faiure of the last six years.鈥� 鈥淕rowth down, wage growth down, business investment down, their own deficit target failed, welfare cap failed.鈥�

13.29

鈥淲e have made our choices - bold in aour vision, confidence in our strengths, and determined. I commend this statement to the house鈥� Hammond sits down, and shadow chancellor John McDonnell steps up.

13.27

He鈥檚 abolishing the autumn statement! From next year there鈥檒l be an autumn budget, and a spring statement - provoking widespread hilarity in the commons. It is to allow greater parliamentary srcutiny of budget measures before the start of the tax year 鈥淎 long overdue change,鈥� he says. Hammond winding up now - he has avoided any tampering with Stamp duty.

13.26

Cancelling expected fuel duty rise for the 7th successive year - a tax cut worth 拢850m. Only one further announcement to make, he says.

13.24

Expected announcement banning lettings fees for tenants: 鈥渨e will ban lettings fees for tenants as soon as possible,鈥� Hammond says. 鈥淚t is wrong.鈥�

13.23

Now he鈥檚 talking about Universal Credit - changes to the tapers as expected. There鈥檚 no sign yet, as had been trailed, of this speech being much shorter than Osborne鈥檚 were - already 45 minutes and still going strong

13.22

National living wage will rise from 拢7.20 to 拢7.50 an hour

13.21

Capital funding for grammar schools - though he hasn鈥檛 said how much

13.20

The personal income tax allowance will be raised, as promised, to 拢12,500

13.19

Large businesses will always pay tax when they make profits - no more discounting against historic losses. This may worry some contractors, many of whom may have been hoping for big discounts following big loss announcements鈥�

13.17

Hammond says 鈥渨e must constantly be alert to tax loopholes鈥�. Crackdown on the self employed. Cut down inapproriate use of the flat-rate VAT scheme. Tax avoidance measures will raise 拢2bn.

13.15

Tax breaks for benefits in kind to employees will be culled - except for a few exceptions, eg. the Cycle to Work scheme

13.13

Hammond confirm govt will stick to the Corporation tax roadmpa set out in MArch - reducing to 17%. But not 15% as Theresa May implied earlier this week - which will underline those who suspect she just hadn鈥檛 realised that committing to the lowest corporate tax in the G20 menat a move to 15% following the election of Trump. A rare joke, seemingly unscripted, when Hammond helpfully points out that a convoluted bit of detail on business tax reliefs was 鈥渃omplicated, but it鈥檚 good news believe me.鈥�

13.12

However spending for the next parliament to be reviewed at 鈥渘ext spending review鈥�

13.11

Hammond says 鈥渄espite the fiscal pressures鈥� govt will keep departmental spending commitments and pensions commitments

13.09

Departmental spending plans in general will remain in place - and efficiency savings will have to be delivered. The only exception is more money to help the prisons crisis.

13.06

Hammond talking about housing again - but one specific private house - Wentworth Wood House, which he is pledging public money to save. It鈥檚 not really clear why - though it allows him a rather convoluted jibe at Labour鈥檚 expense (they apparently authorised open cast coal minining up to the house鈥檚 door in 1946)

13.05

Reconfirm city deals scheme - and new one for Stirling. Devolution packages will have further powers

London to receive 拢3.15bn for housing

13.04

Now saying money for regional infrastructure - 拢1.4bn to regional growth funds, and more for LEPs, and more for northern road schemes.

13.03

Interesting that even though Hammond is now rolling out the announcements, there still seems little enthusiasm from MPs - on either side of the house. Partly because it鈥檚 a slightly downbeat overall tone - stressing the problems of poor UK productivity.

13.02

Now talks about privately-funded infrastructure - he is expanding the UK guarantees schemes which sits behind private investment until 鈥渁t least 2026鈥�

13.01

This is an interesting one - Hammond say he has written to the National Infrastructure Commission to plan on the basis the govt will invest 1-1.3% of GDP in economic infrastructure in future. This compares to 0.8% today so is a big increase. But the wording of this means it is not a concrete promise.

13.00

Now he lays out plans for 5G investment

12.58

Now it鈥檚 on to infrastructure - the 拢1.3bn road building fund, and money for rail network pinch points, and money for autonomous vehicles. He says the govt will continue to work to prioritise and develop funding for northern transport connectivity. That is code for saying that nothing is being announced today - which will disappoint many

12.57

Government will more than double investment in housing in the parliament, he says. I;m sure this claim will be much analysed.

12.55

The communities secretary will bring forward a white paper 鈥渋n due course鈥� - but today: government to focus infrastructure investment in areas for new housing, with 拢2.3bn housing infrastructure fund. Then there the previously trailed 拢1.4bn affordable housing fund, and relaxation of rules on what existing housing grant can be spent on.

12.54

Now he鈥檚 saying how it will be spent - firstly, on housing. 鈥淔or too many the goal of home ownership remains out of reach鈥�. Refers to October 拢3bn housing announcement 鈥渂ut we must go further still.鈥�

12.53

Hammond has been setting out latest forecasts but here is his first announcement - a 拢23bn productivity fund to be spent on innovation and infrastructure - 鈥渋nvesting today for the economy of the future,鈥� he says.

12.52

In this environment, 鈥渨e will prioritise high value investment in infrastructure and productivity,鈥� he says. We can fund these measures through additional borrowing, he adds.

12.51

Hammond鈥檚 statement so far a muhc more low key affair than Osborne鈥檚 recent outings - both in terms of his delivery and in response from MPs, who are mostly listening in polite silence. Unusual

12.50

OBR forecasting higher borrowing and slower asset sales, meaning increased overall debt. It will peak at above 90% in 2017/18 - higher than markets were expecting. Much of this increase is down to additional measures announced by Bank of England in the summer in response to Brexit

12.48

The OBR is revising down forecasts for tax receipts, adding impacts of increasing self-employment. Borrowing this year 拢68bn, falling to 拢17bn by 2021-22. This will be deficit of 0.7% by 2021/22

12.46

Hammond introduces three new fiscal mandates. These will be very important to set policy against going forward. The first, though, is strangley vague - to get back in to the surplus 鈥渁s soon as possible鈥� in the next parliament

12.45

Confirming no intention to seek budget surplus in 2020. Remain committed to see public finances back in surplus 鈥渁s soon as practicable鈥� while retaining enough flexibility

12.43

OBR says Brexit will have 2.3% negative impact on growth of the economy 鈥渙ver the forecast period鈥�. Muted response from MPs, most of which would have voted to stay in the Union.

12.42

Now for forecasts. 2.1% growth in 2016. Next year 1.4% because of lower investment. 鈥淪lower than we would wish, but higher than many of our European neighbours including France and Italy.鈥� 1.7% 2018, then above 2% beyond that.

12.41

Hammond spending time now praising Osborne鈥檚 record 鈥淚鈥檓 sure our style will differ鈥�. but 鈥渢imes move on鈥�. 鈥淲e will maintain commitment to fiscal discipline, while rescognising the need to invest in our economy.鈥�

12.40

Hammond then identifies productivity and the housing shortage as two of the economy鈥檚 key weaknesses.

12.39

Philip Hammond stands up. He says: 鈥淚t is a pleasure to speak about an economy that has bounded back from the depths of the labour - inspired recession.鈥� He then praises the stability since the referendum

12.38

Theresa May asked about workers on boards: 鈥淲e should see worker representation on boards. This government is going to deliver on that.鈥�

12.35

PMQs is over-running - as is fairly traditional in these occasions. May currently taking a question on the cost of motoring - asks MP to wait for the Autumn Statement

12.30

In the build up to today鈥檚 speech, the normally conservative RICS has released a surprisingly political pre-autumn statement comment this morning, describing Philip Hammond as the 鈥淟istening chancellor鈥�, praising him for consulting widely with industry and saying he 鈥渃learly understand the housing sector better than his predecessor鈥�

Jeremy Blackburn, RICS head of policy said the Starter Homes policy had failed to get off the ground and the PRS sector had become a scapegoat.

12.23

Theresa May now asked about housebuilding 鈥淭here is more for us to do, and that is what this government is working on鈥�

12.20

Prime ministers鈥� questions now. Theresa May is asked about the 拢1.3bn spending pledge from the weekend to improve UK roads. She stresses the importance of infrastructure investment in improving productivity 鈥� which is about 鈥渁bout delivering jobs and economic growth鈥� 鈥� she says our chancellor will be setting out more details in a few minutes鈥� time.

11.20:

Good morning and welcome to 黑洞社区鈥檚 Live autumn statement blog, on what could be an important day for the sector.

It is fair to say expectations of a Treasury spending spree have been seriously damped down since the jittery first month after the Brexit vote. With every positive economic indicator released since June 23rd, the likelihood of Hammond splurging on infrastructure has reduced 鈥� the thinking being that consumer demand is doing enough to keep the economy ticking along in the wake of the vote, making up for the expected reduction in business investment.

The reality for the chancellor is that if the economy has done better than expected since June, the public finances are in a considerably worse shape, notwithstanding Monday鈥檚 better than expected October borrowing figures. Whereas in March then chancellor George Osborne said the national debt would top out at around 83% of GDP next year, it is now expected that the government will run a deficit for another three years, taking debt to almost 90% of GDP, and opening up 鈥� according to some forecasts 鈥� a 拢100bn black hole in the government鈥檚 finances.

Alongside this, growth forecasts are expected to be downgraded compared to March, and inflation forecasts are expected to rise steeply as the impact of the fall in the value of the pound starts to be felt.

All of this gives Hammond very little room for manoeuvre, particularly given the political imperative from Theresa May of using the autumn statement to help out the so-called 鈥淛ams鈥� 鈥� people who are just about managing. Widespread speculation suggest Hammond will have to spend billions in delivering more generous childcare subsidies, increasing the income tax personal allowance and reforming the Universal Credit taper rate.

So, given all that, what can construction expect? For a full run down, see . Things we can reliably expect Hammond to do include:

• Find an extra 拢1.4bn for 40,000 affordable homes, to be spent on affordable rented, shared ownership and rent-to-buy homes. This is a big change from the previous government, which had targeted all affordable housing subsidy toward homes to buy. There may be more detail on the 拢5bn housing programme announced at the October Tory conference, which was directed at small builders and off-site manufacturers
• Give 拢1.3bn for road schemes, most of which will go toward improving local roads. Hammond has repeatedly stressed the need to use investment on projects which can be delivered quickly 鈥� and road repairs is the easiest way to do this. 拢27m will go toward a new 鈥渆xpressway鈥� linking Oxford, Milton Keynes and Cambridge
• Produce a 拢5bn roads and railways investment package (of which the 拢1.3bn above is part)
• Ban estate agents from charging tenants letting fees

Other touted changes that are less certain to emerge are:

• A reform of Stamp Duty, either to limit big increases introduced by Osborne on high value homes, or remove surcharge for second homes owners, also introduced by Osborne
• Action on preventing housebuilders land banking. The government has signalled it is considering planning reforms in this area, but an announcement may well wait until publication of the housing white paper
• A further cut to Corporation Tax, beyond that already planned, to match President elect Donald Trump鈥檚 policy of a 15% corporate tax rate in the US. Prime minister Theresa May appeared to promise this during a speech to the CBI on Monday, where she pledged the most competitive corporate tax rate in the G20, but it has been played down since. The UK is already set to reduce Corporation Tax to 17%.