黑洞社区

Discount banners draped over the doors of supermarkets; high streets gapped by whitewashed windows; national chains suddenly collapsing, taking others down with them. This year is looking like a retail disaster zone, and we鈥檙e only in January.

The impact on the construction industry is already becoming clear: the Construction Products Association is predicting a 19% fall in retail new build in 2009, with a further 15% fall in 2010. The organisation does not expect a recovery until 2012. Last week it emerged that Tesco, true to its price-cutting promises, had asked parts of its supply chain to drop their fees by up to 50%. Now it has emerged it is employing payment periods of 60 days, double the industry benchmark, and some consultants are claiming that they are waiting 90 for their cash. QSs were informed by letter that they would lose future work if they did not comply with demands to lower fees. Some contractors are understood to be in negotiations over their prices, while others have been called into 鈥渢ake it or leave it鈥� meetings. An engineer said: 鈥淥ur team was called in and told 鈥榟ere鈥檚 the deal鈥� 鈥� you have to cut your fees and that鈥檚 it. The percentage cut is fairly brutal but it鈥檚 happening in all parts of the sector.鈥�

True enough. 黑洞社区 can reveal that Marks & Spencer, which halted much of its development work and is understood to have slimmed down its property team six months ago, is beginning to pile pressure on suppliers bidding for the work that remains. It is understood to have extended consultants鈥� payment terms to 60 days and a shift in procurement methods has been noted. 鈥淭here have definitely been changes at Marks & Spencer,鈥� says the head of retail at a consultant with a long-standing association with the group. 鈥淚t is procuring much more on price than on relationships now.鈥�

Disastrous Christmas results have been compounded by a shaky start to its Chinese operation 鈥� the first of 50 planned stores was completed six months late and is now trading poorly. Last week it announced it was closing 27 stores and consultants are preparing themselves for a Tesco-style approach to fees.

The loss of staff in the property department at firms such as Tesco and M&S also threatens to undermine relationships with companies. M&S confirmed this week that it was 鈥渃onsulting with its store design and development and property teams on proposed redundancies鈥�.

Of course, some reduction in fees is to be expected in the current climate, as are longer payment periods (Orange and Boots have also been pushing for 60 days). But it is the magnitude of Tesco鈥檚 cut that has shaken the industry.

鈥淔rom a business point of view, if someone said to me, you have to reduce your fees by 50%, then there鈥檚 no point continuing to work for that customer,鈥� says Matt Turner, director responsible for retail at Mace. 鈥淎ccepting a challenge to reduce fees is expected in the current climate but it鈥檚 all about the level at which it鈥檚 pitched.鈥�

So why aren鈥檛 firms walking away? Many say they are desperate to hang onto their big clients through the downturn whereas others hope there is room for negotiation. 鈥淭here are lots of discussions to be had,鈥� says one consultant. 鈥淔or instance, are they going to reduce the number of suppliers so they can give us more work?鈥�

But Turner points out that suppliers have little bargaining power. 鈥淵ou would have difficulty getting everyone to say no to the terms and, even if they did, there鈥檚 probably another 100 companies waiting in the wings.鈥�

While some retail terms, particularly those of Tesco, have been described as 鈥渁ppalling鈥�, 鈥渟candalous鈥�, or 鈥渕onstrous鈥� by consultants, there is at least work still to be won 鈥� and some clients are still doing well enough to avoid fee cuts.

Last week 厂补颈苍蝉产耻谤测鈥檚 announced plans to open six more stores after a good Christmas performance. Aldi, Lidl, Morrisons, Asda and Waitrose are also looking to expand and retailers are eyeing up the hundreds of empty Woolworths sites (Primark, which is also planning rapid growth in Germany and Spain, is said to be interested in some of these).

The problem is that everyone with a corner in the retail market is competing for the work, pushing prices down. 鈥淚n some respects this is the best time to build for 15-20 years because land values and build costs are at their lowest,鈥� says Catherine Tobiasinski, head of retail at EC Harris. 鈥淎 few years ago they were at the mercy of the supply chain but now it is a buyers鈥� market.鈥�

She mentions one Waitrose tender where, without the client having to negotiate, the prices submitted were a third lower than usual. 鈥淭hey have been waiting for this for almost a decade and it鈥檚 full steam ahead.鈥�

Original print headline - Price War