黑洞社区

Jason Scott, with his wife Genevieve and two children, are the kind of family that Westminster鈥檚 politicians love to lionise - hard working, but equally hard-pressed.

The 42-year-old father of two is a surveyor for a windows and doors installation company, while she works part time at their children鈥檚 primary school as a playground supervisor. In their spare time, he serves as a school governor, while she is a member of the parents support association.

But for the past decade the Scotts have been trapped in the dark underbelly of the UK鈥檚 private rented boom (see below). Their story is an exemplar of how thousands have been shut out of home ownership by rising prices.

Living in expensive and poor quality private rented homes, the cost of rent has left them unable to save a penny toward a deposit to get on the housing ladder. 鈥淲e鈥檝e done the right thing, we haven鈥檛 had a holiday in 10 years. We鈥檙e the people that David Cameron is spouting about,鈥� says Jason, for whom the solution is obvious. 鈥淓verybody knows the problem is not enough housing.鈥�

But while housebuilders鈥� share prices have risen sharply on the election result, the Conservative Party manifesto contained no pledge to meet rising demand by setting a target to build more homes, as called for by many in the sector, including in 黑洞社区鈥檚 own Agenda 15 campaign. So will anything be done to address the problems faced by the likes of the Scotts? Or will the next five years see further house price rises and a continued failure to take the radical action needed to make a difference?

It鈥檚 much easier to do things at the beginning of a parliament than at the end. It鈥檚 amazing how things done at the beginning, even if they are painful, are often forgotten by the end

Alan Brown, Cala Group

The scale of the problem

Certainly there is little doubt about the scale of the housing crisis that the government faces. The latest housing supply projections show that 210,000 new homes are required across England each year to cope with the number of new households forming every year. Once the accumulated backlog of past undersupply is factored in, housing pressure groups agree that the UK needs at least a quarter of a million new homes each year. Just 141,000 were built in 2013/14.

Against this backdrop, many people are putting off setting up home altogether. Figures published by the Office for National Statistics earlier this year showed that nearly a third of a million households contain more than one family.

Among young adults, nearly half of whom live in private rented accommodation, the proportion of 20 to 45 year olds putting money aside for a home deposit was down by 6% to 43% last year, according to a survey published last month by the Halifax bank. Home ownership is at its lowest level since 1985, according to recently published Department for Communities and Local Government figures.

The new government

Positively, David Cameron鈥檚 unexpected majority gives the prime minister an opportunity to tackle the deep-seated issues that are holding back housebuilding. Many Tory MPs will feel that they owe him their seats, providing his government with considerable political capital. 鈥淯ntil the end of the year, the government鈥檚 stock will be high,鈥� says Tom Curtin, director of planning engagement consultancy Curtin & Co.

But a working majority of just 12 MPs, about the same that John Major enjoyed following the 1992 general election, means that Cameron will have to move swiftly.

Alan Brown, chief executive of housebuilder CALA Group, urges the government to use its first 100 days to make the tough decisions on housing that will deliver long-term benefits. 鈥淚t鈥檚 much easier to do things at the beginning of a parliament than at the end.

鈥淚t鈥檚 amazing how things done at the beginning of a parliament, even if they are quite painful, are often forgotten by the end,鈥� he says, recalling the uproar from some constituencies that greeted the introduction of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which had died down by the general election.

Lewis Sidnick, director of corporate and external affairs at the NHBC, agrees: 鈥淭hey must not take their foot off the gas - they have a clear mandate and a clear target.鈥�

Meanwhile, Brandon Lewis鈥� reappointment as housing and planning minister gives the industry the policy stability it craves. 鈥淗e gets things done; he鈥檚 in charge of his department rather than the other way round,鈥� says one senior industry figure.

Equally welcome is the appointment of Greg Clark as communities secretary - Clark was previously responsible for drawing up the NPPF. 鈥淚t [the NPPF] seems to be working in terms of land coming through,鈥� says David O鈥橪eary, deputy director of external affairs at the Home Builders Federation, who says the industry wants 鈥渕ore of the same鈥� in terms of housing policy.

The point of attack

So where should the top team be focusing its efforts? With the introduction of the NPPF and the economic recovery, the level of outline consents granted is already running at around 240,000 homes per year, nearly double the actual number of homes being completed, points out Hugh Ellis, head of policy of the Town and Country Planning Association. However, it is turning these outline consents into bricks and mortar that is proving a problem. Many say this will require complex changes to the planning system. 

We have to make sure that the process from granting outline consent to an implementable start on site is quicker than it has been

Ian Sutcliffe, Countryside Properties

Ian Sutcliffe, group chief executive of Countryside Properties, wants to see swift progress on the government鈥檚 moves to streamline planning gain and other conditions. 鈥淲e have to make sure that the process from granting outline consent to an implementable start on site is quicker than it has been. Everybody agrees that the process of clearing conditions has to be smoother than it is.鈥�

Savills head of research Yolande Barnes wants the government to take a fresh look at the way the community infrastructure levy (CIL) works. She says: 鈥淭he impact on housebuilders鈥� cash-flows needs to be looked at. It鈥檚 levied at the wrong point, when planning is granted, because you have to pay the cash for the CIL before the development gets going.鈥�

The most eagerly awaited announcement will be details, expected in the 8 July Budget, of the extended Help to Buy scheme, which chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne announced in March would continue until 2020. The policy is widely viewed as the biggest fillip for the industry over recent years.

The HBF鈥檚 O鈥橪eary says: 鈥淔irst and foremost over the coming days, we鈥檙e looking for the early extension of Help to Buy. We are right up against the time frame for the announcement.鈥�

Richard Donnell, research and insight director at housing market company Hometrack, agrees: 鈥淎 third of big builders鈥� sales are being supported by Help to Buy and a lot of that money is going into the smaller weaker markets. If that was stopped, a lot of builders would start scaling back those build rates.鈥�

Countryside鈥檚 Sutclifffe agrees: 鈥淓xtending that commitment to 2020 allows developers like us to tackle some of the more challenging urban regeneration areas where values are not high.鈥�

Meeting demand

But the new government will need to take bolder steps on housing delivery, such as re-appraising parts of the green belt, if Cameron鈥檚 much-touted 鈥渂lue collar Conservatism鈥� is going to be more than a slick electioneering phrase. The party鈥檚 manifesto was silent on an overall housing target - something advocated by 黑洞社区鈥檚 Agenda 15 campaign.

On social housing, the Conservative manifesto includes a pledge to build 275,000 affordable homes over the next five years. While there are big question marks over the extent to which this can be subsidised given the tight constraints on non-protected departmental spending, social housing developers are probably even more concerned about the Tory manifesto pledge to offer housing association tenants the right to buy, which could reduce their borrowing power. Donnell says: 鈥淭he concern is that it could disrupt the big developing housing associations.鈥�

In addition the manifesto promised to deliver 200,000 discounted dwellings under the starter homes initiative, further details of which are keenly awaited. However, even if met, these commitments together contribute just a small proportion of the 1.2m new homes experts say are needed over the five years to 2020. The manifesto also commits the government to push ahead with plans for 鈥済arden cities鈥�, where supported by local authorities.

Announcing a couple of garden cities isn鈥檛 going to do it. The two announced so far are equivalent to a couple of months鈥� housing supply

David Rudlin, Urbed

But David Rudlin, director of the planning consultancy Urbed and winner of last year鈥檚 Wolfson garden city competition, says the new towns announced so far only scratch the surface of need. 鈥淎nnouncing a couple of garden cities isn鈥檛 going to do it. The two announced so far are 20,000-25,000 homes between them which is equivalent to a couple of months鈥� housing supply. We have to reform the way we allocate land for housing,鈥� he says.

And while the green belt is sacrosanct, according to the Tory manifesto, there is growing pressure to challenge this planning shibboleth. Cala鈥檚 Brown acknowledges that while tampering with the green belt will be unpopular, English politicians should take heed of the more sophisticated approach taken by Scottish planners. 鈥淕reen belts are reviewed every time the local plan is reviewed if additional housing is required. We all know that any change to the green belt policy will be very unpopular so that鈥檚 something they should really look at now.鈥�

And while Sutcliffe argues that the government needs to keep up the momentum on bringing brownfield sites back into use, it cannot put greenfield development on the back burner. 鈥淚f we are going to hit the numbers we need, we can鈥檛 just do it in urban areas; we can鈥檛 have blanket statements excluding large areas of the country to development. But this is the kind of controversial reform that would need to be enacted swiftly.鈥�

Without these kind of radical changes, Jason Scott worries that the country鈥檚 middle income backbone will be priced out of the housing market. He says: 鈥淚鈥檝e never collected benefits, I鈥檝e always worked hard and sometimes I stand with my head in my hands and wonder why. You鈥檙e better off being on the dole: that can鈥檛 be right.鈥�