黑洞社区

One of the oddities of the British political system is that the party in power has the option of calling an election at any time in its five-year reign; generally speaking, the earlier the election the more confident the government, and the more off-balance the opposition. If the prime minister clings on to power like a drowning man, everyone knows when the election will be, and so the parties are at liberty to start their campaign months before parliament is dissolved. The 2010 election campaign has been the longest in living memory.

So far, the parties have resembled shy exhibitionists as they鈥檝e tried to reveal their plans for the future of Britain without actually telling us what they are. Up until Brown called the election on Tuesday, the result has been a surprising boost for the party in power, as the electorate, like a betrayed spouse, ponders whether to take the Labour party back one last time.

This election is usual in that it will largely be fought over public services, and unusual in that the argument is over how much they will be cut. So far Labour has been pretty successful in portraying the Tories as gang of chainsaw wielding drunks led by a posh Sweeny Todd.

In the run up to the election, 黑洞社区 and building.co.uk will be bringing you a series of special features on the parties and their policy decisions (assuming they ever make any). We will also, of course, try to work out how those policies will affect the industry, and how far they go to meeting the demands of our Charter 284 campaign. To kick off this coverage, we meet five of the industry鈥檚 undecided voters, who have agreed to update us throughout the campaign on which party is having the most, and least, success in capturing their vote.

Jack Pringle, partner, Pringle Brandon

Age 58
Voting record Usually Labour, but has voted Lib Dem on occasions
Currently favouring I always lean to the left

One thing that would swing it 

If it was quite clear that one party was going to support the economy until it could recover by itself, while the other was going to maximise cuts to address the debt

Predicted outcome

A hung parliament 鈥� which could be the most entertaining

My politics

I鈥檝e always been interested in politics 鈥� I came from a political family. I remember meeting Ken Clarke in my parents鈥� home when I was about 15. Thirty years ago there was a philosophical divide in politics, and about 20 years ago, the left won the social argument and the right won the economic one. With people like Blair and Cameron, the difference is considerably less. So politics isn鈥檛 what it used to be, but that doesn鈥檛 mean it鈥檚 any less interesting. It鈥檚 just more nuanced. It鈥檚 not high level philosophy 鈥� it鈥檚 about the management of affairs to reach goals.

Their politics 

This year, I鈥檝e got Bill Clinton鈥檚 line ringing in my ears: it鈥檚 the economy, stupid. The first and biggest issue is how we get out of recession. The clear proposition from Labour is that we have to keep our foot on the pedal until the economy is strong enough to survive without more public spending. It makes sense 鈥� but they have to keep their nerve. Worryingly, the Conservatives seem to be saying they want to cut almost immediately. But is that just to differentiate themselves? If the next government came in and savagely cut all public spending I can see us going straight into depression.

We鈥檝e actually got away quite lightly in this recession as an industry, thanks to public spending. When that wasn鈥檛 there, in the late eighties and early nineties, the recession was murderous for the industry. We鈥檙e all down 20%, if not more, and there have been casualties, but one can feel the market coming back. If we go down again though, there鈥檚 no fat in the system.

The second issue is about the management of the economy and public services once we鈥檙e out of the danger of a double dip. Although there are some beacons of efficiency in the public sector, there is huge waste. Any architect with public sector clients reels every now and then at the appalling inefficiency, although it鈥檚 not universal.

We all know that it鈥檚 in the Tories鈥� DNA to hunt down public sector inefficiency and eradicate it. And at least the Conservatives are promising to scrap the Architects Registration Board, and hand over its powers to the RIBA, which will be a good piece of streamlining. Labour doesn鈥檛 really understand us 鈥� they still give the impression that the professions are conspirators against the laity.

The personalities 

These are intriguing. Everyone wants Vince Cable to be chancellor. George Osborne does not fill me with confidence, he just looks a lightweight. Alistair Darling is a serious person and a straight shooter 鈥� he鈥檚 not necessarily someone I鈥檇 like to go out to dinner with, but he employs minimal political spin, which does his reputation for integrity a lot of good.

I鈥檓 quite a fan of Gordon Brown, because he鈥檚 a conviction politician 鈥� he鈥檚 genuinely there for the good he can do. His flaw is in trying to paper over his low emotional intelligence, which is like putting lipstick on a gorilla. If he were more open about being a dour Scot trying to do his best, I think his qualities would shine through.

David Cameron is the exact opposite: I just don鈥檛 think he鈥檚 a conviction politician. They鈥檙e such mirror images that it鈥檚 an extraordinary situation that they鈥檙e up against each other at the same time. I鈥檒l be staying up on election night with a bottle of whisky.

Paul Swinburn, director, Provelio

Paul Swinburn, director, Provelio

Age 50
Voting record Has voted for all three major parties
Currently favouring Labour

One thing that would swing it

Higher education spending

Predicted outcome 

I think over the past six weeks it鈥檚 been swinging towards Gordon and Alistair

My politics 

I鈥檝e voted for all three parties in the past. My parents come from different backgrounds 鈥� my father鈥檚 family were dockworkers and fishermen in Grimsby, and my mother鈥檚 family are business people. So there were some interesting debates at home. In my formative years I was a Tory, but then I switched to Labour and have continued to vote Labour in the main. I鈥檝e voted Lib Dem a few times but that was mainly from a tactical point of view.

Their politics 

This time I think the parties are closer than ever before on policy. I鈥檓 not sure one party would do a splendid job and the others a terrible one 鈥� we are in very difficult times. Historically I鈥檝e voted primarily on the basis of personal interest 鈥� but I have to say, that may change during the campaign. As the father of three girls I鈥檓 particularly interested in how it will affect them 鈥� in terms of their education now, and in terms of what will happen in years to come with respect to green issues. I say this even though one of my daughters recorded Coronation Street over the chancellors鈥� debate 鈥� From a business point of view the capital expenditure on higher education and on healthcare are key to us, so education is my main interest personally and professionally. On the cuts 鈥� it鈥檚 a question of extent and areas, so I鈥檓 particularly interested to know where they鈥檒l hit. I鈥檓 looking for a glimmer of hope.

The personalities 

To me, this year it鈥檚 about the individuals who鈥檇 be the next chancellor and their relationships with their prospective prime ministers. It鈥檚 not about trust anymore 鈥� expenses and Iraq shattered that. It鈥檚 about economic competence. Vince Cable seems to be the most impressive, but he doesn鈥檛 have the weight of one of the biggest parties behind him, so I hope one of the other two takes on more of his views.

Neil Dower, managing director, Conamar

Neil Dower, managing director, Conamar

Age 33
Voting record Traditionally Conservative, although local election voting varies
Currently favouring I鈥檓 keeping a totally open mind

One thing that would swing it 

Support for businesses coming out of recession

Predicted outcome 

I can鈥檛 see a hung parliament. I think at the moment the Conservatives are coming off best

My politics 

I鈥檝e always voted more on the way the parties treat business than on personal issues, as we鈥檙e a family business and an SME. This time, it鈥檚 got to be about the party with the best growth package to get us out of recession, and at the moment nobody鈥檚 been very clear about that. I鈥檇 rather look at a party giving honest answers on that, than one bringing up yet more dirt on its rivals鈥� expenses.

Their politics 

This is a crucial election for the construction industry. Public spending cuts are one of the big issues 鈥� we work with local authorities, the health and education sectors so I鈥檒l be looking for news on those. The key issue for me is how they鈥檒l look after businesses coming out of recession. So any leniency for SMEs, or decisions on local authority spending will be important. Another boost for construction would be around climate change, and measures to reduce the emissions from buildings. There have been so many changes in the MPs that represent construction too 鈥� I think we need some stability.

The personalities

I think Labour could have handled the recession a bit better. At the moment, the Conservatives are putting across the best views, but they鈥檙e campaigning on change and they keep changing their change. Labour pulled a fast one in getting Blair back on the bandwagon, as Brown might have the policies but can鈥檛 express them well enough.

Chris Fennell, director, Curtins Consulting

Chris Fennell, director, Curtins Consulting

Age 52
Voting record Usually Conservative
Currently favouring Leaning towards Labour

One thing that would swing it 

A commitment on levels of public spending in areas that affect the construction industry

Predicted outcome 

Too close to call. It may well be the Lib Dems have a say in it

My politics

I鈥檓 anti-political really, as they鈥檙e all as bad as each other. You鈥檝e got to be honest 鈥� how do you pick between a rotten apple and a rotten apple? But I do vote every time, and this year I鈥檓 undecided because it鈥檚 moved from being a personal thing to a business thing. In the past, it鈥檚 probably just been about my personal preference but this time the outcome could really affect the company that I work for. I think there could be a big difference between the parties, and that in turn will have a big impact on construction.

Their politics

Things like taxation I don鈥檛 really get excited about 鈥� they鈥檒l get the money one way or the other. If it鈥檚 not on my National Insurance it鈥檒l be on my cigarettes. The big issue for me is public spending. If we look at the projects we鈥檙e doing at the moment, we鈥檙e on a couple of large prisons, 黑洞社区 Schools for the Future, academies, universities 鈥� It鈥檚 really key that whoever gets in commits to carrying on that expenditure. And the same goes for health and housing. Road and rail won鈥檛 affect our business so much, but on the sectors we鈥檙e in we can鈥檛 afford for schemes to be cancelled or postponed.

Obviously the situation under either party is not going to be very good, but the question is whether it鈥檚 going to be slightly worse or disastrous.

The personalities

Despite not being overly political, I like watching question time 鈥� I watch it most weeks. I think it鈥檚 fair enough to say I don鈥檛 think either Cameron or Brown will get a landslide victory鈥�

Simon Flatt, managing director, Flatt Consulting

Simon Flatt, managing director, Flatt Consulting

Age 41
Voting record Lib Dem in the last election, Labour the one before that
Currently favouring I鈥檓 sitting on the fence between Labour and the Conservatives

One thing that would swing it 

A springboard for the construction industry

Predicted outcome

A Conservative win

My politics

I vote every time there鈥檚 an election, and because I run a business I鈥檓 interested in the commercial elements of what each party says. I look for where they鈥檒l make a difference to business, and where their key drivers match our forward business plan. So for example, a boost to the revenue stream on sustainability would suit us well, but if anyone wanted to do away with EPCs we鈥檇 be annoyed. I鈥檓 also interested in policies on personal taxation, and on support for the industry. I feel that compared with other industries we鈥檙e in the deepest of recessions. Our usual clients can鈥檛 get funding, and the whole professional service fee level is very challenging. I鈥檓 looking for something to alleviate that 鈥� a springboard to get the construction industry back on its feet. Not something direct, like 10% off bricks or anything, but stealth assistance 鈥� like funding for sustainability. But it comes down to money, so it鈥檚 a tough equation.

Their politics

You need some pretty big boots to jump into where Gordon Brown has got us to with the economy. It鈥檚 a very challenging time, and there鈥檚 a huge workload ahead. If Gordon Brown has another term he will keep doing what he鈥檚 doing, and there will be slightly faster change than under the Conservatives as they鈥檝e got a lot of picking up to do on the economy.

The personalities

Part of the reason I鈥檓 undecided is the personalities of the individuals. I use the adage 鈥渓ike, trust and respect鈥�. Do I like, trust and respect Gordon Brown? I trust him, I think I respect him, but I don鈥檛 know if I like him. I like and trust Cameron, but I don鈥檛 respect him as I haven鈥檛 seen what he鈥檚 done. And Nick Clegg is a wildcard. Maybe there is an element of getting someone different in there though, it might generate some fresh confidence in the economy.

The politics of the construction industry

In 2005, it looked like construction had never had it so good. Eight years of Labour leadership had led to a public spending programme that bore comparison with the Victorian era. The government pumped 拢500bn into the economy every year, 拢33.6bn of it capital spending, and the private sector鈥檚 only concern was whether it had big enough trousers to store all the money. A poll of more than 400 readers on the 黑洞社区 website in the week before the election confirmed that 47% of respondents thought Labour had the best policies for construction, compared with 30% who preferred the Conservatives and 12% the Liberal Democrats. Despite this, the Tories took a 3.4 point lead over Labour, with 35.6%, when readers were asked how they would vote.

That suggests that construction, which has traditionally leaned to the right, voted on personal preference rather than its economic self-interest. Habit may have played a part as well: the industry鈥檚 huge number of smaller firms supplied the C1 shock troops of Thatcherism, and they also believed that the Tories were the party of low tax. But in the main, the message was clear: having the best policies for the sector as a whole was not crucial when deciding how to vote.

It鈥檚 different this time. It鈥檚 no longer a choice between the good and the great, but between the bad and the worse: the perception is that the industry and its workers are balanced on a precipice, and that has pushed other factors out of the equation. All five of our undecided voters mentioned public spending as a key criterion.

There are subsidiary factors. Pringle mentions the replacement of ideology by managerial efficiency, and that has weakened voters鈥� loyalty to a particular party. In the eloquent words of Paul Swinburn: 鈥淚t鈥檚 not about trust anymore 鈥� expenses and Iraq shattered that. It鈥檚 about economic competence.鈥� There is one puzzling fact to all this. Given that anxiety about the economy predominates, and given that Labour had been in power for a decade when the financial crash occurred, why is it benefiting more from the recession than its opponents? Unless the Tories can change that, this might not be their year after all 鈥�

Original print headline - Who's it going to be?