The fallout will continue for months, says analyst Alastair Stewart
There has never been any UK construction collapse remotely as big or spectacular as Carillion鈥檚 today.
The fact it was an extremely rare compulsory liquidation rather than what had been mooted as an administration, at worst, is evidence that, as one insolvency practitioner has let it be known, 鈥渢here is little if any worth left in the company鈥. The reverberations will continue for months.
My immediate impressions? First, and contrary to perceived wisdom over the past few days, no construction/services group is 鈥榯oo big to fail鈥, not with the PM reportedly fending of any taxpayer 鈥渂ail-out鈥. This was the coup de grace. Only on Friday evening, Carillion stated it was in 鈥渃onstructive discussions鈥 with its financial and other stakeholders. That now sounds as euphemistic as Premier League clubs insisting 鈥渢he manager continues to enjoy the complete support of the board鈥 .
Most contracts will carry on, albeit with delays. But, in the words of the imaginary jobbing builder, 鈥渋t鈥檒l cost you mate, sorry, minister鈥 . Government departments will now have to renegotiate contracts, presumably on terms more grounded in commercial reality.
Balfour Beatty, Galliford Try are among a litany of companies alerting the market to the cost of their cases. The speed with which they were issued a clear indication that the industry has been calculating the likely cost longer than most in government or the banks.
The real cost for the industry is likely to come in a domino effect through the supply chain, especially subcontractors. This could lead to new delays and costs for rival contractors that thought they were off the hook.
Postscript
Alastair Stewart is an equities analyst and commentator
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