黑洞社区

They say that the first 100 days of any new government is totemic in politics. So, now that the inevitable has occurred and we have a Labour administration with a landslide majority in charge, what can we expect? 

Let鈥檚 be honest, I can see very little happening in the early days that will shock or stun the electorate that put Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves at the helm of the ship. The initial period will be filled with much hand-wringing and feigned astonishment about the state of the situation inherited from the last Conservative government.

Let鈥檚 face facts: our perilous economic state will not change just because there is a new name on the door at the Treasury

I don鈥檛 expect any outgoing Tory ministers will be silly enough to leave notes saying that 鈥渢here is no money left鈥� 鈥� as has happened in the past 鈥� but let鈥檚 face facts: our perilous economic state will not change just because there is a new name on the door at the Treasury.

Starmer鈥檚 manifesto stated that 鈥淟abour鈥檚 first mission is to kickstart economic growth鈥� and sets an ambitious target of securing the highest sustained growth in the G7 group of major Western economies. This would involve raising the UK growth rate from an average of 1.3%, which was seen between 2010 and 2019, to around 2.0%.

>> Also read: This election should bring us back to the centre

The last time the UK posted sustained growth in excess of 2.0% was before the financial crisis, in the period 2003鈥�07.

It would be naive to think that any government could counter the effects of the pandemic and the energy crisis in its initial term of office. Public debt currently stands at the highest level in 60 years and taxes at the highest level in over 70 years.

We have not just maxed out the credit card, we have eviscerated, burnt and buried it. UK general government gross debt was 拢2,721bn at the end of Q4 (October to December 2023), equivalent to 101.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

While welcomed by many at the time, historians may well view furlough, government lending schemes and the 鈥渆at out to help out鈥� initiative as catastrophic errors in years to come, something we could simply not afford post-austerity.

This disastrous financial state of affairs will allow Labour some flexibility in terms of justifying future cuts and tax hikes. The 鈥渢hings are much worse than we could have possibly imagined, so cut us some slack鈥� scenario. Also, a huge majority means that Labour have a blank cheque鈥�

In terms of personality, steady Starmer is no bloviating Boris or terrible Truss 鈥� both now consigned to history, thank goodness. So I don鈥檛 imagine we will see the knee-jerk approach to policy reform exhibited by previous Tory PMs.

If they want to fulfil their manifesto pledge of providing 1.5 million more homes and growing the economy, we will need fundamental change to the way the government has historically viewed and engaged with those operating in the built environment

Indeed, the 拢18bn of Conservative cuts planned over the next five years to the public sector purse were already baked into this new government鈥檚 plans 鈥� or at least never denied by Labour, so they are going to happen regardless. 

Housing and planning however are two areas of change that, as key priorities, are uncontested in terms of popularity and so have no political price tag. Expect to see the national planning framework ripped up and central government incentives for local authorities to build.

That will be no bad thing, but I would not expect to see announcements of large infra projects, new hospitals, or expensive schools. Certainly not in the early days. This is a Labour Party that has been out of power for a long time and, with this majority, barring a catastrophe, they are looking at a decade of government.

>> Also read: Mark Wild of SGN: Construction must recruit to make progress

>> Also read: Paul Ruddick of Reds10: Ask not what the next government can do for construction

>> Also read: Nicola Hodkinson of Seddon: Will Labour鈥檚 apprenticeship reforms really solve the skills crisis?

鈥淪lowly, slowly鈥� will be the watchword. They have no reason to hurry. Nevertheless, the productivity deficit and people and skills crisis will need to be met head-on. If they want to fulfil their manifesto pledge of providing 1.5 million more homes and growing the economy, we will need fundamental change to the way the government has historically viewed and engaged with those operating in the built environment.

Brexit was the elephant in the room that all the main political parties ignored during their campaigning, but the vexed issue of skilled migrants boosting our construction workforce will need to be addressed quickly now that the results are in. With over 250,000 extra workers required over the next three years, it should be a core concern for the new business secretary and construction minister.

I hope that both will have higher profiles, greater lengths of tenure and more power than we have seen from their counterparts over the past decade. 

We were the mice that never roared during the election campaign and it is time that this changed

Knowing how vital construction is to the country and despite a promise to involve industry in its growth plans, it was disappointing to see relatively little engagement from Labour with our sector before the election. Our representation deficit has been a core issue 鈥� we have simply not been heard anywhere near loudly enough.

We were the mice that never roared during the election campaign and it is time that this changed. We are worth millions of tax-paying jobs and up to 8% of GDP. We need a seat at the table.

Nothing gets built without the engagement of those working in the built environment and the new government would be wise to take this into account, regardless of the number of MPs they have.

Finally, as the first 100 days tick away, confidence will be key. Investors, developers and the business community want leadership and the continuity that was sadly missing during the Johnson/Truss/Sunak eras.

If the new regime can deliver on its pledge to 鈥渆nd the chaos鈥� and steady the ship quickly, we may just have enough time to gain some equilibrium and brace ourselves before the next 鈥� and arguably more consequential 鈥� election takes place across the pond: Trump vs Biden.

If Trump should be elected president, as currently seems likely if the polls are to be believed, we will all need to hang on tight. It鈥檚 going to become an even bumpier ride鈥�

Richard Steer is chair of Gleeds Worldwide and a 黑洞社区 The Future Think Tank commissioner