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A lack of skilled construction labour and product manufacturing capacity may hold back Keir Starmer鈥檚 plan to build 1.5 million homes over the next five years, a respected economist has warned.

Noble Francis, economics director at the Construction Products Association, said the government is likely to be hoping for a steady trajectory in increasing housebuilding to just over 380,000 homes by the fifth year of the parliament. This means housebuilding needs to increase by 60% as there were 234,400 net additions to the housing stock in England last year, once conversions are included.

Francis, writing on Linked In, said: 鈥淭here are also key constraints on the availability of skilled construction labour and construction product manufacturing.

鈥淎s house building recovers over the next few years, these may emerge as the key constraints given that a significant rise in UK skilled labour and product manufacturing requires upfront investment (time and money) for a long-term return.鈥�

Francis said the UK house building workforce and product manufacturing capacity have fallen in recent years, so 鈥渘ew investment in skills and capacity will initially be needed just to get them back to where they were 2-3 years ago鈥�.

Francis pointed to figures showing there were 2.08 million people employed in construction in the first quarter of 2024, down 1.9% year-on-year.

Francis said housebuilding growth could see 鈥渄ouble-digit鈥� wage inflation, but stressed housebuilders and contractors have dealt with this before.

He said: 鈥淢edium-term, though, it is not just a cost problem, it is an availability problem. There just won鈥檛 be the people.鈥�

>>See also: Cross-sector collaboration can address the skills shortage

Francis said easing planning issues may make a big difference in the medium-term but said it 鈥渋sn鈥檛 a panacea鈥�.

He added: 鈥淣ew Towns may help, but New/Eco towns have failed in the past, and government鈥檚 commitment to 40% of these homes as so-called 鈥榓ffordable鈥� makes them less financially viable for developers.鈥�

Francis鈥� comments come days after the London Homes Coalition, a group of social landlords, warned of a potential shortfall of 2,600 skilled workers in the social housing sector in London.

The Kings Speech on Wednesday is expected to contain measures to boost the Labour government鈥檚 housebuilding programme.