In the past few months, the construction industry has become an anxious and uncertain place. To help us make sense of it, we鈥檝e asked a student, a subcontractor, a small builder, an architect, an entrepreneur, a forecaster and a consultant to form a panel.
They will keep us updated over the months ahead on how the recession is affecting them. Their first instalment, which begins our austerity special feature, doesn鈥檛 make pretty reading, as Roxane McMeeken and Emily Wright discovered.
The small builder: Markham Jones, Owner, 1st Choice Property Services, North Wales
The phone hasn鈥檛 rung in months. If things don鈥檛 improve, I鈥檒l go bankrupt. No two ways about it.
People are terrified of spending money at the moment. If the roof has fallen in they might call a builder. But if you鈥檙e worried that you won鈥檛 have a job in three months, you鈥檙e not going to get a builder in just because you fancy a new kitchen.
I used to turnover about 拢500,000 a year but this year I鈥檝e done 拢11,000 鈥 it鈥檚 a derisory sum. Thankfully I don鈥檛 employ anyone and don鈥檛 owe money to any suppliers or subcontractors. But I do have a mortgage to pay and I鈥檓 not making anywhere near enough to do that. I鈥檝e cashed in all my ISAs and I鈥檓 eating into my other savings. My car 鈥 a very nice Mercedes 鈥 will be the next thing to go. The value of my house has fallen about 拢100,000 but I鈥檓 not in negative equity yet. But I think the price is going to fall further. I know my mortgage provider will stand for me missing three months鈥 payments before the game is up.
I asked my accountant what I should do and he literally had nothing to suggest. The bank was no help either 鈥 they just tried to sell me insurance and advised me to keep my 拢10,000 overdraft but I know they won鈥檛 stand for me missing payments.
I鈥檓 59 and I鈥檝e been through two other recessions while I鈥檝e been a builder and neither was as bad as this. In the last one people would put in their own kitchen but then they鈥檇 struggle with something like fitting the worktops so they鈥檇 call in someone like me. So there was at least a bit of work.
This time, it鈥檚 different. I鈥檓 an old fashioned builder鈥搄oiner and I鈥檒l do anything, I鈥檓 not being fussy 鈥 I did one job recently that involved fitting two roof tiles 鈥 but there simply is no work around.
I have had a good life but it seems to be coming to an end. I鈥檓 being hammered and I don鈥檛 know what to do if that phone doesn鈥檛 start ringing soon.
The student: Jaymie Carmack, 21 Made redundant from student placement
I was working part-time for contractor Holloway White Allom while studying construction management at Westminster university. I was getting fantastic experience. Then it all came crashing down in October when Holloway made me redundant and stopped paying my university fees.
I tried not to be upset by it. It was a business decision and they did what they had to. I was shocked, though. I thought my future was looking bright and I was earning good money. I was making 拢21,000 a year.
I鈥檓 going to try and find a part-time job now, but it鈥檚 not going to pay that kind of money. I鈥檓 determined to pay for my course somehow, though. I don鈥檛 want to give up on construction yet, but I will probably not stick with construction management. I鈥檓 thinking of becoming a QS or project manager as I think I鈥檇 have more job security.
I wanted to join the industry because it has a shortage of women so I thought I鈥檇 be in demand. It doesn鈥檛 feel like that now though.
The subcontractor: Diane Johnson Director of electrical contractor Northwich
We鈥檝e tenders out worth 拢2.4m but nothing is happening with any of them. We鈥檙e doing okay for now, but come next year, if none of those tenders come off, we won鈥檛 be able to keep on the workforce we鈥檝e got, particularly our apprentices.
We鈥檙e seeing more and more double tendering. You go in to tender with a main contractor and he wins the job, so you think you鈥檝e got the job. But then the contractor comes back and says you have to tender again 鈥 basically he鈥檚 asking you to cut your price. It means profit margins are being cut from 12-20% to 5% or even less.
Training is suffering, too. This year we had 50 staff including 15 apprentices. But we鈥檙e down to 45 because we had to let five apprentices go after they鈥檇 finished their training.
We鈥檙e a family business, so succession is really important to us and that鈥檚 why we鈥檙e keen on training. But with things so tight, how can you factor in an apprentice when you put in a price?
We were hoping 2008 would be our best year ever. We had done 拢1.8m in turnover between April and August and I鈥檇 hoped we鈥檇 do 拢2.2m for the year to April 2009, but I doubt we鈥檒l make that.
One advantage we鈥檝e got is that we own our premises so we鈥檝e not got rent to worry about. But we still have a fleet of 23 vans, 15 apprentices, mobile phones and staff costs to cover.
We鈥檙e not having too many issues with late payments at least, although maybe some are coming through a couple of days later. I鈥檓 pleased the government has said it will pay in 10 days 鈥 but will it come down through the supply chain?
The start-up: Mark Kennor Founder, Pure Fit Out
Our timing is clearly fantastic 鈥 we got our first contract around the time Lehman Brothers went down. To be fair, we had the idea to launch Pure Fit Out in March, when the economy was not in such a desperate a state. It was before people were saying we were definitely in for a recession.
I鈥檓 still upbeat but we鈥檝e obviously had to revise our plans. We were aiming for 拢2.5m turnover in our first
year. Now it鈥檚 拢2m. We have also got to go after a wider range of work. The initial plan was to stick to luxury hotels but we鈥檙e now also looking at leisure, offices and residential jobs.
In some ways we鈥檙e better off than the big boys. We don鈥檛 need loads of jobs to keep us going because there is only me and my business partner to keep employed. And because we鈥檙e a start-up, we鈥檙e working from home and on site and we鈥檙e paying ourselves nominal salaries. So we don鈥檛 have the overheads of a large firm.
I also think if we can keep ticking over through a downturn, we鈥檒l come out of it extra strong. [Boxer] Nigel Benn used to train at altitude and have a couple of pints of blood removed. When he got back down to sea level and had the blood put back in, he鈥檇 be fully charged up for a fight. I reckon we鈥檒l be like that and come out of this fighting fit.
Personally, I am finding that I鈥檓 having to cut back. I lived a fairly affluent lifestyle 鈥 I鈥檓 a big fan of mini-breaks. I won鈥檛 be going on any of those for a while. Maybe I鈥檒l go on the odd camping trip!
The architect: Pascale Scheurer Director, Surface to Air Architects and RIBA Trust Board member
Despite the downturn we have been incredibly lucky. We have chosen the right sectors to be in, like education and other public work. I can鈥檛 reveal exact financial details but we鈥檝e doubled our turnover year on year and expect it to continue.
We haven鈥檛 been asked to revise designs 鈥 all our projects are going ahead as planned, in both the public and private sectors. We have noticed our clients getting better value for money, as contractors are pricing tender returns more competitively, which is great.
In these circumstances, when it comes to redundancies, the mistake people make can be not cutting enough 鈥 if job cuts are necessary then it鈥檚 a case of more is more. The way we鈥檙e cutting costs is by using freelance designers. It may not sound cheaper in the short term, but when work is so up and down it鈥檚 the most cost-effective way to hire people; it means they are not doing nothing when things go quiet. I would also recommend the option of asking people with families about four-day weeks. They might well be keen on that idea anyway and you will have a happier employee and save 20% and will probably get the same level of efficiency from them.
Nobody knows yet how serious things are going to get, but some things are certain. At the start of the year, we were seeing young people coming straight out of college asking for 拢30,000. And some weren鈥檛 even that good. Now people are struggling to find work. We have seen the number of CVs landing on our desks increase five-fold every week.
This is the first recession I have worked through and I鈥檓 hoping that I鈥檒l learn a lot from it.
The consultant: Steven Barker Partner, RLF property and construction consultant
For us, local authority work has been a saving grace as the housing market has dried up, so we are holding up quite well. For SMEs like us, I think we should be encouraged that there are noises coming from Gordon Brown and old Darling Alistair that small firms will be helped out by government, although it is difficult to say much more until we have been given some details.
Turnover to May 2009 is expected to be about 拢13.5m with 拢1.8m profit, down from a predicted 拢14.6m and 拢2.2m this year. This drop-off is owing to schemes being stopped or delayed, mainly in residential, retail and offices.
The way to survive the tough times is planning and preparing, in my opinion. That鈥檚 what we鈥檙e doing. We have made projections and gone through every what-if scenario and come up with contingencies. We haven鈥檛 had to lay anyone off yet and we don鈥檛 go in for scaremongering ,but the key in difficult times is to try and be as open as possible. As far as recruitment is concerned, we鈥檙e reviewing our strategy.
I am 52 and therefore officially a grumpy old man and I actually think that we needed a correction. Not a recession, which is unfortunately what we鈥檝e got, but definitely a change. Not too many months ago, people were borrowing five times their salaries to buy a house. That鈥檚 silly money and people need to go back to being more sensible. It is this kind of ludicrous spending that catapults businesses into doing the same and that鈥檚 where we saw all this out-of-control lending.
I noticed that construction and property became full of unprofessional people who felt they could make a quick buck. Institutions should only lend to experienced people who know what they are doing. Property is a complicated business, but it was made simple by uncontrolled lending in the market. So I鈥檓 actually happy there has been this forced change.
The forecaster: Michael Ankers, Chief executive, Construction Products Association
We don鈥檛 have people ringing us up every day saying, 鈥淥h my God, oh my God.鈥 It鈥檚 not that dramatic yet. But we are seeing companies coming to us wanting our economic information and research so they can be better prepared. There is a thirst for knowledge.
We haven鈥檛 seen a lot of complaints coming through to us. It鈥檚 mainly just people mentioning an increase in bad payment practices 鈥 and we鈥檙e being alerted on a regular basis, of course, to redundancies. But that鈥檚 the extent of it so far. I have also had meetings cancelled with companies who suddenly find themselves having to make cuts or rethink their businesses 鈥 meetings become movable and less important.
It is worth remembering that despite the downturn, there is still about 拢70bn worth of work to be won. It鈥檚 not all doom and gloom. But the recession will change the industry; there will be casualties. It is still too early to say whether the industry we have in 2012 will be one we鈥檇 recognise now.
The Grimdex
In an effort to gauge the mood of the industry, we will be returning to our panel at regular intervals to find out how pessimistic they鈥檙e feeling about the times ahead. In an entirely unscientific fashion, we鈥檝e asked them to rate their mood on a scale of 0-10, with 10 being very pessimistic indeed. An average of all seven ratings will then be taken as that month鈥檚 鈥淕rimdex鈥 forecast.
This month鈥檚 ratings are:
- Markham Jones 10
- Diane Johnson 9
- Michael Ankers 7
- Steven Barker 4
- Jaymie Carmack 3.5
- Mark Kennor 3
- Pascale Scheurer 2
- Gloomwatch average 5.5
Postscript
Original print headline: Gloomwatch
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