黑洞社区

Given the frenetic speed of change in Westminster over the past three weeks, it is almost unsurprising that a Conservative Party that until Monday was set for a nine-week leadership election has suddenly landed itself a new leader, and therefore handed the country an instant new prime minister.

Theresa May鈥檚 abrupt arrival in Britain鈥檚 top job should, at the very least, restore some sense of stability to the country鈥檚 leadership (notwithstanding that pressure to call an election is still in danger of leaving Number 10 in the charge of Larry the cat - the resident mouser who, these days, seems Westminster鈥檚 most secure occupant).

For construction, May鈥檚 appointment could not have been more timely. Hours before her victory was assured, market analyst Experian slashed its forecasts for the industry鈥檚 growth this year from 2% to near-flat. The cut takes account of a slowdown in the market in the run-up to the EU referendum; but crucially, it does not reflect the effect of the result, which was unknown when the forecasts were prepared. Experian鈥檚 view on the impact of Brexit is that it 鈥渋s currently unquantifiable, but is almost certain to be negative,鈥� - a sombre warning that leaves the spectre of recession in construction an unspoken, but hanging possibility.

The stated view of May - formerly a somewhat fainthearted Remainer - on Brexit is that the country has voted for it, and therefore it will happen. In a high-profile speech on Tuesday, she pledged to set out her plans to take the economy through the current period of uncertainty 鈥渋n the coming weeks鈥�. And for construction, tied as its fortunes are to the wider economy, that plan cannot come soon enough.

But even before those plans are set out, May鈥檚 long-term vision for the UK鈥檚 economy should offer some reassurance - and even, dare it be mentioned - encouragement, to the sector.

In the same speech, the new prime minister talked passionately about the need to supply more housing, and repeatedly referred to infrastructure development, signalling that she may share her predecessor鈥檚 enthusiasm for hard hat appearances on the UK鈥檚 mega projects. But what was most significant about May鈥檚 vision, from the industry鈥檚 perspective, was the allusion she made to the financing of these schemes.

Promising 鈥渕ore Treasury-backed bonds for infrastructure projects鈥�, May appeared to signal a shift from the diktat of austerity that has characterised the last six years of the Conservative leadership鈥檚 approach to the public financing of schemes. And the sense that she envisages a greater role for the public sector in funding development work was further enhanced by a nod to the potential of mutuals, set up by public sector workers, to benefit from the creation of new housing and roads.

The way has already been paved for this less austere approach by chancellor George Osborne鈥檚 decision to scrap the government鈥檚 commitment to achieving a budget surplus by 2020, which although pinned on the fallout from Brexit, neatly divorced the government from a target many considered unachievable for an economy that is still far from flying.

The idea that May - a Cabinet member since 2010 - will completely reverse the policy of the past eight years to launch a full-blown stimulus programme, like Labour鈥檚 in 2008, would be fanciful. And in any case, such a move would be fraught with difficulty given the uncertainties over the impact of Brexit on public, as well as private, finances. But there are degrees of intervention, and where Cameron鈥檚 government fixed itself resolutely at one end of the scale, May appears to be advocating a more balanced view.

So it won鈥檛 be a blank cheque by any means. But there is a lot to be said for the potential for a beefed-up state-backed programme of development to help ride out an otherwise unpredictable market drop, whether that is through direct funding or a policy environment that promotes a broader mix of project finance. The early signs are that May is well aware of this. She might yet drag a winning formula out of the chaos of the past few weeks.

Sarah Richardson, editor